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Buy Signal Score ?
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How the Score Works
The Buy Signal Score combines 4 independent indicators into a single number from 0-10. The more signals that agree, the higher the score. This is called confluence — no single indicator is reliable alone, but when multiple align, the signal is much stronger.
Scoring Breakdown:
RSI (Relative Strength Index) 30% weight
Fear & Greed Index 30% weight
Moving Average Cross (50/200 day) 20% weight
24h Price Change 20% weight
Each indicator scores points based on current conditions. Points are totaled and scaled to 0-10.
7-10 = Strong Buy 4-6 = Moderate / Wait 0-3 = Weak / Not Now
A score of 8+ means RSI is oversold, the market is fearful, the long-term trend is bullish, and price just dipped hard. That's the sweet spot — historically the best entries happen when everything aligns like this.
What High Scores Looked Like
Aug 5, 2024 — All signals aligned Score: ~9/10
RSI: 17 · F&G: 12 · Dip: -15% BTC recovered +30% in 2 weeks
Mar 2020 — Maximum confluence Score: ~10/10
RSI: 15 · F&G: 8 · Dip: -40% Began 18-month bull run (+1,500%)
Nov 2021 — No confluence Score: ~2/10
RSI: 78 · F&G: 84 · Surge: +8% Market topped, -75% crash followed
RSI (14) ···
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Relative Strength Index
What is RSI?
RSI measures how fast and how much the price has moved up or down over the last 14 days. Think of it like a rubber band — the further it stretches, the harder it snaps back. It gives a score from 0 to 100.
0–30 = Oversold (Buy Zone) 30–70 = Neutral 70–100 = Overbought (Caution)
When RSI drops below 30, sellers are exhausted and buyers tend to step in. Above 70, it's been running too hot and a pullback is likely.
📐 How we calculate this ▾

We compute RSI ourselves from 200 days of historical closing prices from CoinGecko.

Formula:
1. Look at the last 14 daily price changes
2. Average Gain = sum of up-days ÷ 14
3. Average Loss = sum of down-days ÷ 14
4. RS = Average Gain ÷ Average Loss
5. RSI = 100 − (100 ÷ (1 + RS))

This is the standard Wilder RSI formula used by TradingView, Binance, and every major charting platform. You can verify our value on TradingView.

Historic Signals
Aug 2024 crash to $49k RSI: 17
→ Bounced to $64k in 2 weeks +30% recovery
Mar 2020 COVID crash RSI: 15
→ $3.8k to $10k in 2 months +163% recovery
Nov 2021 BTC at $69k ATH RSI: 78
→ Dropped to $33k over 3 months -52% decline
Fear & Greed ···
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Market sentiment index
What is Fear & Greed?
This index measures the overall mood of the crypto market on a scale of 0 (maximum fear) to 100 (maximum greed). It pulls from volatility, volume, social media, surveys, and BTC dominance. Warren Buffett's famous rule — "Be greedy when others are fearful" — is exactly what this tracks.
0–25 = Extreme Fear (Buy) 25–75 = Neutral 75–100 = Extreme Greed (Caution)
When everyone is panicking and selling at a loss, that's historically the best time to buy. When everyone is euphoric and FOMO buying, a top is usually near.
📊 Source: Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index

This value is pulled directly from the Alternative.me API in real time. They calculate it from: market volatility (25%), volume (25%), social media (15%), surveys (15%), BTC dominance (10%), and Google Trends (10%). You can also compare with CoinMarketCap's version.

Historic Signals
Jun 2022 — LUNA/3AC collapse F&G: 6
→ BTC at $17k, later hit $73k +329% over 20 months
Mar 2020 — COVID crash F&G: 8
→ BTC went from $3.8k to $64k +1,584% over 13 months
Nov 2021 — BTC ATH week F&G: 84
→ Market topped, crashed 75% Bear market followed
Moving Average Cross ···
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What is Moving Average Cross?
Think of this as a trend detector. It compares Bitcoin's recent average price (last 50 days) to its longer-term average price (last 200 days).
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Positive % = Recent price trending UP (Bullish ✅) Negative % = Recent price trending DOWN (Bearish ⚠️)
Why it matters: Buying dips during a bullish trend (positive %) is safer — the momentum is on your side. Buying during a bearish trend (negative %) is riskier because the overall direction is still down.
📐 How we calculate this ▾

We compute this ourselves from 200 days of historical closing prices from CoinGecko.

Formula:
1. 50-day MA = average closing price of last 50 days
2. 200-day MA = average closing price of last 200 days
3. Spread = ((50 MA − 200 MA) ÷ 200 MA) × 100
4. Positive spread = bullish (golden cross)
5. Negative spread = bearish (death cross)

This is the standard Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossover used across all trading platforms. You can verify on TradingView by adding the MA 50 and MA 200 overlays.

Historic Signals
Oct 2023 — Golden Cross BTC: $28k · Spread: +1.8%
→ BTC rallied to $73k ATH +160% over 5 months
Jan 2022 — Death Cross BTC: $43k · Spread: -1.2%
→ BTC fell to $15k -65% over 11 months
Feb 2020 — Golden Cross BTC: $9.5k · Spread: +2.3%
→ (COVID dip then) $64k +573% over 14 months
24h Change ···
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What does 24h Change tell us?
The simplest indicator — how much BTC moved in the last 24 hours. Big drops (5-10%+) often trigger liquidation cascades — leveraged traders get forced out, creating a temporary overshoot to the downside. These sharp drops tend to bounce hard because the selling was forced, not organic.
-5% or more = Dip (Buy signal) -2% to +2% = Stable +5% or more = Surge (FOMO risk)
If BTC just ripped 8% in a day, that's not the time to buy. But a big red day combined with bullish signals from the other indicators? That's often your best entry.
📊 Source: CoinGecko BTC/USD

The 24-hour percentage change is pulled directly from CoinGecko's API. It represents the price change over the last 24 rolling hours. You can verify this value on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap.

Historic Flash Crashes
Aug 5, 2024 — $60k crash -15% in 24h
→ Back above $70k next day V-shaped recovery
May 19, 2021 — China ban crash -30% in 24h
→ Bounced 33% in 48 hours Massive V-recovery
Mar 12, 2020 — Black Thursday -40% in 24h
→ Began 18-month bull run +1,500% to ATH
Signal Analysis
Notable Signal Events — When Indicators Were Right
Strong Buy Signals That Played Out
March 12, 2020
COVID "Black Thursday" Crash
Score: ~10/10
Global markets collapsed as COVID lockdowns began. BTC dropped 40% in a single day to $3,800. Pure panic selling — leveraged positions liquidated across every exchange.
RSI 15
Fear & Greed 8
24h Change -40%
MA Cross Bearish
What happened next
BTC recovered to $10k in 2 months, then began an 18-month bull run to $64,000 — a +1,584% gain from the bottom. One of the greatest buy signals in BTC history.
June 18, 2022
LUNA / 3AC Collapse
Score: ~9/10
The Terra/LUNA ecosystem collapsed, wiping out $40B. Three Arrows Capital went bankrupt. Contagion spread across crypto. Fear was at maximum.
RSI 22
Fear & Greed 6
24h Change -15%
MA Cross Bearish
What happened next
BTC bottomed at $17,600 and began a slow recovery. Over 20 months it rallied to $73,000 — a +329% gain from the bottom.
August 5, 2024
Japan Carry Trade / Flash Crash
Score: ~9/10
The Bank of Japan raised rates, triggering a global carry trade unwind. BTC crashed from $70k to below $50k in hours as leveraged positions were liquidated across markets.
RSI 17
Fear & Greed 12
24h Change -15%
MA Cross Bullish
What happened next
Classic V-shaped recovery. BTC bounced back above $70k within days — a +30% recovery in under 2 weeks. The flash crash was a gift for anyone watching the signals.
May 19, 2021
China Mining Ban Crash
Score: ~8/10
China announced a full ban on crypto mining, triggering a 30% crash in 24 hours. BTC dropped from $43k to $30k. Massive liquidations and panic across all exchanges.
RSI 20
Fear & Greed 10
24h Change -30%
MA Cross Neutral
What happened next
BTC bounced 33% within 48 hours back to $40k, then rallied to a new ATH of $69k by November — a +130% gain from the crash bottom.
Weak Signals — When NOT to Buy
November 10, 2021
BTC All-Time High — $69k
Score: ~2/10
Peak euphoria. Everyone was calling for $100k by end of year. Influencers and mainstream media all screaming buy. Leverage at all-time highs. Classic blow-off top conditions.
RSI 78
Fear & Greed 84
24h Change +8%
MA Cross Bullish
What happened next
BTC topped at $69k and began a year-long bear market, eventually crashing -75% to $15,500. Anyone who bought the top didn't break even for over 2 years.
April 14, 2021
First 2021 Peak — $64k
Score: ~2/10
Coinbase IPO week. Extreme hype, Dogecoin mania, everyone was a genius trader. RSI overheated, greed maxed out. The market was running on pure FOMO.
RSI 74
Fear & Greed 79
24h Change +5%
MA Cross Bullish
What happened next
BTC crashed from $64k to $30k over the next 6 weeks — a -53% drop. The China mining ban in May accelerated the sell-off.
January 8, 2021
Pre-Correction Rally — $42k
Score: ~3/10
BTC had doubled in 3 weeks going into the new year. Parabolic move fueled by institutional FOMO after PayPal and MicroStrategy announcements. Way overextended.
RSI 88
Fear & Greed 95
24h Change +12%
MA Cross Bullish
What happened next
BTC dropped -27% to $30k over the following 3 weeks. Even in a bull market, buying when every indicator is overheated leads to short-term pain.
The pattern is clear: When RSI is oversold, Fear & Greed is at extreme lows, and price has dropped sharply — the best buying opportunities follow. When RSI is overbought, greed is maxed out, and price has surged — corrections follow. The signals don't predict the future, but they consistently identify when risk/reward is most favorable.
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